{"generated_at":"2026-10-12T15:17:35Z","decision":772,"today_nl":"2026-10-12","method_note":"Forecasts h1..h14 steps from naive, drift, weekly seasonal naive, damped Holt and a skill-weighted ensemble (weights 1/MAE of the last 120 measured errors). Intervals are empirical quantiles of the last 250 measured errors with the quantile level steered by adaptive conformal inference so that measured coverage converges to 80 and 95 percent. BACKTEST rows are rolling-origin forecasts that used only data available at their origin; LIVE rows are immutable and hash-chained from their issue time. Skill is 1 - MAE/MAE_naive: above zero means better than assuming no change.","disclaimer":"Informational analytics, not financial advice.","chain":{"ok":true,"rows_checked":350,"head":"e683bf65bdd42bd91da14e9ceea7700ffd978e01c565405cc0466631f8a84371","genesis":"GENESIS-decision-772-v2"},"driver_archive":{"model_runs_archived":2,"archive_since":"2026-10-12T13:17:32Z","live_elec_errors_by_h":{"1":0,"2":0,"3":0,"4":0,"5":0},"needed_per_h":30,"ready":false},"electricity_drivers":{"n_days":365,"from":"2025-10-12","to":"2026-10-11","pearson_r":-0.552,"eur_mwh_per_10pp_share":-15.7,"mean_share_pct":22.8,"last_share_date":"2026-10-11","last_share_pct":46.0,"source":"Energy-Charts.info, CC BY 4.0","note":"association, not causation and not a forecast"},"indicators":{"ELEC_NL_DA":{"unit":"EUR/MWh","label":"NL day-ahead electricity, daily mean","calendar":"daily","seasonal":true,"attribution":"Bundesnetzagentur | SMARD.de via energy-charts.info, CC BY 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